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re: Karen at the CDC releases memo projecting 3,000 Covid deaths per day in June
Posted on 5/4/20 at 12:29 pm to The Boat
Posted on 5/4/20 at 12:29 pm to The Boat
quote:3,000 on June 1st does not seem reasonable.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is projecting the U.S. coronavirus daily death toll to reach about 3,000 people by June 1, with 200,000 new cases per day by the same date, the New York Times reported on Monday.
AI Covid Projections
This site has been quite good at projecting deaths, and it’s predicting 1,042 deaths on June 1st with a 95% CI between 324 and 2049. So 3,000 would be 46.4% greater than the 97.5th percentile projection, which is around the 99.993rd percentile.
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