re: Can we have a “Leveraged ETF’s: explained” thread?

Pulled S&P500 daily data from 1/3/1978 forward. Applied all the maths and considered if you invested $100 on any given day what the value would grow to for 1x, 2x, and 3x levered fund.

$100 invest in 1978 would now be worth $3,104.27 in 1x, $24,650.67 in 2x, and $46,159.79 in 3x. Over the past 22 years, 53.3% of the days have been up, 46.5% have been down, and 0.2% have been flat.

The 3x doesn't always win... here's a quick table since 2000 showing which fund would have been best to be in. The 3x does dominates in every date up to August of 1986. As expected,once you get into major downward volatilty the levered funds start to lose.

Buy Date | 1x Value | 2x Value | 3x Value | Winner
1-Jan-00 | $198.23 | $174.40 | $66.85 | 1x
1-Jan-01 | $220.59 | $226.91 | $106.87 | 2x
1-Jan-02 | $253.68 | $314.13 | $186.52 | 2x
1-Jan-03 | $331.03 | $572.08 | $506.96 | 2x
1-Jan-04 | $261.93 | $368.74 | $274.01 | 2x
1-Jan-05 | $240.32 | $314.24 | $219.57 | 2x
1-Jan-06 | $233.31 | $299.33 | $207.38 | 2x
1-Jan-07 | $205.35 | $234.20 | $145.70 | 2x
1-Jan-08 | $198.35 | $224.17 | $141.82 | 2x
1-Jan-09 | $322.44 | $702.97 | $1,025.04 | 3x
1-Jan-10 | $261.18 | $496.78 | $680.94 | 3x
1-Jan-11 | $231.58 | $403.49 | $523.53 | 3x
1-Jan-12 | $231.59 | $426.26 | $617.95 | 3x
1-Jan-13 | $204.21 | $336.82 | $444.67 | 3x
1-Jan-14 | $157.57 | $203.05 | $212.06 | 3x
1-Jan-15 | $141.46 | $165.78 | $159.53 | 2x
1-Jan-16 | $142.49 | $172.31 | $175.28 | 3x
1-Jan-17 | $130.09 | $146.11 | $140.45 | 2x
1-Jan-18 | $108.93 | $102.92 | $83.61 | 1x
1-Jan-19 | $116.18 | $120.54 | $110.77 | 2x