re: Louisiana up to 763 today, goes on lockdown by March 30

quote:

---

Good, glad you brought up genetic testing.

---

Not sure why, given that there are probably only a handful on the board that can talk shop about it at my level.

quote:

---

First, I'll point out that trying to pinpoint viral genetic mutations down to the DAY is not an exact science...

---

It isn’t based on estimating mutation rate and working backwards. It’s sequencing en masse in a lot of times, dates, and countries to build a comparative database. The US strains contain mutations that were sequenced in China till around that date.

And down to the day wasn’t claimed. But a several day window? Easily. And in any case, you are maybe arguing possibly a week earlier. Not a month.

The fact remains no matter how long it may or may not have been festering in China, the earliest identified date of divergence from China was mid January. To claim that he was here earlier would require for mutations to randomly occur in the same places in the code in different places in the world.

Given the number of changes being talked about, that is basically impossible.

In any case, there not a shred of evidence to suggest that it was here at a broad level stateside. Even if you somehow magically handwaved the genetic analysis away, you don’t have ANYTHING to support broad community level spread earlier than established timelines except your wish to believe this is the same as flu.