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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 9/15/20 at 7:56 am to dafif
Posted on 9/15/20 at 7:56 am to dafif
quote:
Still having a difficult time grasping a mortality rate around 3%. Seems way high for me.
Recall testing favors more serious cases and disfavors asymptomatic and mild cases.
Now that they are testing everyone and everything, the CFR should continue to decline. I remain convinced the actual IFR is going to settle into a 0.4 to 0.6 % range.
No one will care that it is more like a powerful strain of the seasonal influenza than the Spanish Flu, but it is already obvious that it is true. This is why politics and science don't mix.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 7:57 am
2
Posted on 9/15/20 at 6:03 pm to Ace Midnight
I think it’s going to settle in lower, actually.
We know way more regarding how to treat this than we did just a few months ago and virus’ generally mutate to be weaker/more contagious as they progress.
I’m seeing a lot more incidental covid positives in elderly than I was before. Lots of >70 that are just confused/sob like a flu rather than knocking on deaths door.
We know way more regarding how to treat this than we did just a few months ago and virus’ generally mutate to be weaker/more contagious as they progress.
I’m seeing a lot more incidental covid positives in elderly than I was before. Lots of >70 that are just confused/sob like a flu rather than knocking on deaths door.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 6:04 pm
Posted on 9/15/20 at 8:39 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
No one will care that it is more like a powerful strain of the seasonal influenza than the Spanish Flu, but it is already obvious that it is true. This is why politics and science don't mix.
I don’t know if comparing a 100 year old flu to today’s Covid-19 is a fair comparison. Public health has come a long way since then.
Covid-19 has resulted in about 920,000 global deaths compared to 150,000-550,000 for H1N1 which is often averaged to 300k. So Covid-19 will end up globally 4-5x more lethal than H1N1.
This isn’t a bad flu season. The US has averaged 38k flu deaths from 2010-2018 per CDC. We are at 199k Covid deaths. Even if we take the highest year of 61k and subtract that, we are still 3x that amount with 3.5 months to go. At our current pace, we will end the year in the 250-275k range for deaths or 4x the highest flu outbreak in the last decade and 6.5x our average year.
I agree; politics and science don’t mix.
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 8:42 pm
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