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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 8/14/20 at 9:45 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 8/14/20 at 9:45 pm to Chromdome35
I think it is fairly evident that what I call the George Floyd spike (since it was clearly aligned with the dates) has reached it's peak and is starting to decline. The growth rate of deaths has been flat since 7/23.
Testing has increased, but not back to the level it obtained not that long ago. The positivity rate is definitely declining. Hospitalizations are showing a rapid decline, not quite as fast as they went up, but there are lots of COVID patients who require extended hospital stays.
Every single metric is moving in the correct direction. I think that as schools reopen IF we can avoid a new spike in cases, we should be able to say this thing is wrapping up. If there is going to be a school spike, we should start to see that in around 2 weeks. I expect to see everything continue to decline until then.
Testing has increased, but not back to the level it obtained not that long ago. The positivity rate is definitely declining. Hospitalizations are showing a rapid decline, not quite as fast as they went up, but there are lots of COVID patients who require extended hospital stays.
Every single metric is moving in the correct direction. I think that as schools reopen IF we can avoid a new spike in cases, we should be able to say this thing is wrapping up. If there is going to be a school spike, we should start to see that in around 2 weeks. I expect to see everything continue to decline until then.
2
Posted on 8/14/20 at 10:21 pm to Chromdome35
Good stuff Chrome. Other than the frickery on Wednesday, positivity is looking great. Now we see if my prediction from last week of deaths turning down next week becomes reality. Hoping to finally see a Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday or Friday drop below 1k.
COVID Tracking must be catching up on Texas deaths, the other source I saw today said Texas reported 192 deaths and less than 1k nationwide. Said other source has Texas with a slightly higher death toll too (same for nationwide, currently shows 171,535 deaths on ncov2019.live), so likely just catchup or COVID tracking having a higher standard for "counting" a death.
COVID Tracking must be catching up on Texas deaths, the other source I saw today said Texas reported 192 deaths and less than 1k nationwide. Said other source has Texas with a slightly higher death toll too (same for nationwide, currently shows 171,535 deaths on ncov2019.live), so likely just catchup or COVID tracking having a higher standard for "counting" a death.
Posted on 8/15/20 at 4:07 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
If there is going to be a school spike, we should start to see that in around 2 weeks.
No indeed not! It will take at least eight weeks. A school spike comes from kids getting infected. They will all be asymptomatic. If you randomly test the kids a lot, then do contact tracing, you will get an early spike in cases, but it won’t show up in hospitals and deaths until enough time has gone by to spread the infection among their families.
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