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Started By
Message
re: US Chinese Virus Tracker - 466,299 Cases, 16,686 Deaths, 26,104 Recovered (4/10/2020)
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:32 am to NC_Tigah
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:32 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
The caveat being most folks will not get as sick as they would with the flu, if they get sick at all.
Gotcha. So more deaths (4x), but less hsopitalizations.
I only say that because assuming the the flu kills 34,000 people as it did last year, your projection would be in the 136k range for deaths?
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 7:40 am
3
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:39 am to NYNolaguy1
Reading comprehension is not your strong suit.
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 7:41 am
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:54 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:At this point we know the virus deadly for elderly with underlying health problems. To healthy people this virus might only present the symptoms of allergies acting up.
So more deaths (4x), but less hsopitalizations.
The only people going to the doctor are those with severe like flu symptoms. You cannot determine the mortality rate unless you know the total number of those with the virus.
But we will never know that number because many people with the virus show little to no symptoms.
On paper the death rate appears high but in reality it is much much lower.
Posted on 3/7/20 at 8:04 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:Right.
So more deaths (4x), but less hsopitalizations.
I only say that because assuming the the flue kills 34,000 people as it did last year, your projection would be in the 136k range for deaths?
That is possible. Anticipation is we will see far fewer cases though.
That gets at effective contagiousness for CV vs flu. Initial calculations of CV contagiousness (R0) were based on spread of symptomatic cases. Early on, asymptomatic transmission was severely underestimated. So R0 assumptions were/are inflated.
I'd be surprised if we don't see significant reworking of CV R0 values.
Meanwhile, the presumption is testing, isolation, and control can limit case numbers to fewer than typify flu outbreaks.
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