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re: US Chinese Virus Tracker - 466,299 Cases, 16,686 Deaths, 26,104 Recovered (4/10/2020)

Posted on 3/7/20 at 6:59 am to
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
124653 posts
Posted on 3/7/20 at 6:59 am to
quote:

I expect the mortality rate to go down from the (overstated) 5% we see here right now to the ~ 2%-3% rate that other countries have observed.


You're doing this again?

What is it that you do not understand between "reported cases" vs all cases?
There must be a better way to explain this to you.

In situations where testing captures the bulk of infections, CFR is ~5X lower than your numbers indicate. I don't know how to make that more clear.

In South Korea where per capita testing exceeds that of other countries 10 to 20-fold, mortality rate is found to be 0.6%. Just as I've told you it would for two weeks.
This post was edited on 3/7/20 at 7:02 am
Posted by Homesick Tiger
Greenbrier, AR
Member since Nov 2006
54259 posts
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:04 am to
Just read on FOX that the first patients of the virus on the east coast have died, both in Florida, two men both in their 70s, both had traveled to China.

LINK
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
20977 posts
Posted on 3/7/20 at 7:25 am to
quote:

In South Korea where per capita testing exceeds that of other countries 10 to 20-fold, mortality rate is found to be 0.6%


So you're expecting this to be about 4 times as bad as normal flu?
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