Started By
Message

re: Am I the only one who thinks the market's reaction to the coronavirus outbreak is...

Posted on 2/1/20 at 9:36 am to
Posted by BamaAlum02
Huntsville, AL
Member since Nov 2005
1017 posts
Posted on 2/1/20 at 9:36 am to
You keep making this about interest rates and it is about actions of the Fed. The Fed is one of the largest influences on market valuations. I thought that was a pretty accepted principle. You can call it correlation, coincidence, causation or whatever else but generally when the Fed pulls back on repo positions the market reacts in a downturn and vice versa. So regardless of what happens with rates, if the Fed reduces their repo liquidity by 20%, the market is going to downturn. There are years of data to support this.

It was hyperbole on my part to say the virus has 0 impact. Of course it does, everything does because investing also has a psychological aspect that no amount of data can rationalize. So when there are factors like the Fed reducing repo operations, a virus scare, investors looking for a reason to pull profits then all those things snowball and you start to see consecutive days of downturns that maybe turns into a correction.

That is a lot of words on my part to say that I disagree with you that the market would ignore the Fed's actions on repo positions (especially when it is a significant change) just because the overnight rates have been consistent the last few months.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
127298 posts
Posted on 2/1/20 at 10:20 am to
quote:

You keep making this about interest rates and it is about actions of the Fed.
Well, yeah. The Fed takes open market actions in order to influence overnight interest rates to meet their stated rate goal. The two are inseparable.

quote:

but generally when the Fed pulls back on repo positions the market reacts in a downturn
The Fed had almost ZERO repo operations from the end of the 2008/2009 financial crisis up until last Fall and the stock market went up considerably during those years.

Believe what you want.
first pageprev pagePage 1 of 1Next pagelast page
refresh

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram