re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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They nailed the Theodore Roosevelt CFR.

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Did they though? If 65% of cases are symptomatic, then 65% of 1156 cases is 751. So 1 death per 751 symptomatic cases. And that’s probably a group of adults that is far healthier than the overall population.

Compare that to the 2017-2018 flu season, the deadliest in decades with 61,099 deaths a symptomatic CFR of 0.14%. The 18-49 group (not just healthy military personnel), has 2,802 deaths out of 14,428,065 symptomatic cases. That is 1 death per 5,147 symptomatic cases.

So that puts COVID-19’s symptomatic CFR as 6.9 times greater than the 2017-2018 season with a less risky population on top of that. And 6.9 times the 2017-2018 symptomatic CFR is 0.95% or so.

And since I’m average, 84% of flu infections are symptomatic, and using the 65% symptomatic COVID estimate, that puts the IFR between 0.7 to 0.75 percent, exactly the range for the average of the 25 studies in the meta-analysis I’ve cited.

And you get a similar result doing the same thing for the 14 deaths on the Diamond Princess cruise ship with the older population.