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re: China just cancelled all flights and trains in/out of Wuhan
Posted on 1/22/20 at 3:28 pm to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 1/22/20 at 3:28 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Big Scrub TX
There are almost 8 billion people in the world. 2% of the world's population dying in a pandemic would be 150+ million people. That's not being dramatic or alarmist at all. It's actually very possible... and as time goes on, it's more and more likely that it WILL happen.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 3:37 pm to BayBengal9
quote:
So, you think a disease spread more easily in 1917 than it will now... when over half of the world's population lives in an urban area?
Yeah, actually I do. It was able to get to Europe from KS because it took so damn long to get over there in the first place. So you had people interacting in close proximity in dirtier conditions for longer periods of time than you do today.
Just general food safety and sanitation in general is 100x better today than it was back then. Not exactly like you had a microwave or fridge everywhere you looked back then.
Everyone freaked out about SARS and swine flu and all that stuff as well. It never got as bad as the press warranted.
Plus, you know, the cdc. Malign the gubmint all you want (and I do, believe me) but those mad scientists in Atlanta know whats up. They cured that dr with Ebola during that freakout. EBOLA.
and I mention transmission and incubation because thats the one thing no one has mentioned. Really am anxious to read what the deal is with this strain.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 3:46 pm to UnitedFruitCompany
quote:
UnitedFruitCompany
I hear what you're saying, and I don't disagree with it from the perspective of being in America... but I'm thinking about it from a worldwide pandemic perspective. If it's even just slightly more contagious than your average flu, and it gets loose into large cities in 3rd world countries like Manila, Bangkok, Hanoi, Jakarta, and other large cities like those, I think the death toll would be pretty horrific.
And I think food safety and sanitation is somewhat overrated when you're talking about a flu-like virus. The regular ole plain jane flu kills HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of people in the US every year. Throw in a virus that is similarly communicable, slightly more contagious, and with a little bit higher mortality rate and you could STILL have a million dead in the US over one bad flu season. Compound that with an increased strain on our healthcare system, lack of hospital beds... like I said, we might be fine in the US, but other places? It would be ugly.
I'm not implying it's doomsday, but I am saying if things get sketchy, you would be very wise to have some food on hand, medical supplies to keep you and your family at home for any kind of basic health/medical issues, and somewhere to go to that isn't in a large urban area if it got to that point.
If I had to bet on what the next worldwide Black Swan event will be that could most dramatically impact my family, it would be a global pandemic.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 3:48 pm to BayBengal9
quote:
it WILL happen.
You misspelled "could" happen.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 3:50 pm to trinidadtiger
Meanwhile our CDC and FAA won’t lift a finger to stop flights and passengers arriving from countries with hot zones. The first case has already come over.
If it truly does have a ten percent mortality rate, this is the mother of all corona viruses.
If it truly does have a ten percent mortality rate, this is the mother of all corona viruses.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 3:51 pm to southdowns84
quote:
You misspelled "could" happen.
Hate to break it to you, but your garden variety bacteria has killed more people throughout human history than all the wars, cancers, and heart attacks combined.
I hope I'm wrong, but history is on the side of a global pandemic coming our way sooner or later.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 3:59 pm to BayBengal9
No doubt.
Ever since reading One Second After ive been way more cognizant of black swan like deals that would affect easy american way of life type stuff. Which is funny because i love that post-apocalyptic crap (Katrina(me), Walking Dead, Contagion, all of them, really) and yet none of those stories ever really made me think, shite, maybe I should buy a few MREs. Until that one.
Here's hoping it just blows over. Until then, though, ill be sure to stay away from any civets with a bad cough....
Ever since reading One Second After ive been way more cognizant of black swan like deals that would affect easy american way of life type stuff. Which is funny because i love that post-apocalyptic crap (Katrina(me), Walking Dead, Contagion, all of them, really) and yet none of those stories ever really made me think, shite, maybe I should buy a few MREs. Until that one.
Here's hoping it just blows over. Until then, though, ill be sure to stay away from any civets with a bad cough....
Posted on 1/22/20 at 4:04 pm to BayBengal9
quote:
Hate to break it to you, but your garden variety bacteria has killed more people throughout human history than all the wars, cancers, and heart attacks combined.
No, I get that.
But you're just guessing here so there's no reason to use bold font and all caps other than to be dramatic.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 4:07 pm to trinidadtiger
The Chicoms have had a very bad year.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 4:10 pm to UnitedFruitCompany
Apparently there are opinions that the virus has mutated, has been transmitted between humans and can be transmitted through the air...
Posted on 1/22/20 at 4:16 pm to The Maj
quote:
Apparently there are opinions that the virus has mutated, has been transmitted between humans and can be transmitted through the air...
Yeah I saw this one too. Outbreak. with Dustin Hoffman and Rene Russo.
Just give Cuba Gooding some rhino tranqs, point him in the direction of a civet Dr McDreamy imported illegally and Morgan Freeman will have this all cleared up before the president MOABs some sleepy mountain town.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 4:25 pm to trinidadtiger
It’s already here
LINK
Also in Hong Kong, Macau, and possibly Mexico.
Hopefully it fizzles out like Ebola, but when the big one comes it will probably look like this - a Chinese origin virus in livestock.
LINK
quote:
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the first United States case of a mysterious coronavirus from China in Washington state.
Also in Hong Kong, Macau, and possibly Mexico.
Hopefully it fizzles out like Ebola, but when the big one comes it will probably look like this - a Chinese origin virus in livestock.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 4:26 pm to UnitedFruitCompany
quote:
No doubt. Ever since reading One Second After ive been way more cognizant of black swan like deals that would affect easy american way of life type stuff. Which is funny because i love that post-apocalyptic crap (Katrina(me), Walking Dead, Contagion, all of them, really) and yet none of those stories ever really made me think, shite, maybe I should buy a few MREs. Until that one. Here's hoping it just blows over. Until then, though, ill be sure to stay away from any civets with a bad cough....
Well, more bad news. If you didn't read "The Road"...and do...further down you go. It's worse than "One Second After". I get a cold shiver ever time I think about it.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 4:39 pm to RCDfan1950
quote:
ell, more bad news. If you didn't read "The Road"...and do...further down you go. It's worse than "One Second After"
and now I kinda hate you....lol
Posted on 1/22/20 at 4:41 pm to The Maj
quote:
Apparently there are opinions that the virus has mutated, has been transmitted between humans and can be transmitted through the air...
Don't worry, I heard the Pentagon funneled 35 trillion into a fund specifically setup to combat this threat.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 4:42 pm to timdonaghyswhistle
quote:
In other news out of China, a poll of Hong Kong protesters says 90% are planning to move to Wuhan soon.
Move not voluntary.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 4:42 pm to trinidadtiger
Jug Ears disapproves of this move. Wouldn't do it for Ebola.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 4:47 pm to BayBengal9
quote:
There are almost 8 billion people in the world. 2% of the world's population dying in a pandemic would be 150+ million people. That's not being dramatic or alarmist at all. It's actually very possible... and as time goes on, it's more and more likely that it WILL happen.
We need a virus that wipes out closer to 50%. We can call it the Thanos Virus.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 4:47 pm to southdowns84
Article with Texas Research Physician about the new virus
Just read this... it makes me feel better than he seems to think it is not going to be as fatal as SARS (SARS had a 10% mortality rate, hence why I was going with that as an example)... however, he's getting his numbers from the Chinese government, which I do not trust at all, so... not sure about that.
He does point out that we are seeing more and more of these coronaviruses popping up more frequently... if I seem dramatic, it's only because I want people to be prepared for a very real possibility that could dramatically affect life as we know it for some period of time.
Just read this... it makes me feel better than he seems to think it is not going to be as fatal as SARS (SARS had a 10% mortality rate, hence why I was going with that as an example)... however, he's getting his numbers from the Chinese government, which I do not trust at all, so... not sure about that.
He does point out that we are seeing more and more of these coronaviruses popping up more frequently... if I seem dramatic, it's only because I want people to be prepared for a very real possibility that could dramatically affect life as we know it for some period of time.
Posted on 1/22/20 at 4:50 pm to BayBengal9
quote:
we might be fine in the US, but other places? It would be ugly.
Depends on the location in the US. The bubonic plague has been trying to make a comeback in the west coast liberal homeless enclaves.
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