re: How the refs choose to call this one will have a big impact on the game

The only thing that is certain is that if the game is remotely close, a large portion of the fanbase that loses will blame it on the refs.

In a close game, the message board for the team that loses will have half a dozen threads on the first page about getting screwed by the refs.

In a blowout loss, there will still be one or two threads blaming the refs.

And other than the fans for the team that lost, no one cares about missed or bad calls by the refs. Whether the complaining is justified or not, to everyone but the fans for the team that lost it just comes off as whining.