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Message
Strength of Schedule needs revision
Posted on 11/5/19 at 11:00 pm
Posted on 11/5/19 at 11:00 pm
All teams ranked below 75 in FBS, including FCS opponents, should not count for a top-30 teams SOS.
Factoring in a team beating #80 vs #120 into SOS is complete hogwash for a reasonable thinking analyst.
Count only games were the opponent has at least a 10-15% chance to win.
Factoring in a team beating #80 vs #120 into SOS is complete hogwash for a reasonable thinking analyst.
Count only games were the opponent has at least a 10-15% chance to win.
This post was edited on 11/5/19 at 11:01 pm
1
Posted on 11/5/19 at 11:37 pm to TigerBert
Completely agree. There are so many flaws with it.
Let’s take a simple example.
Team A plays #1 ranked and #90 ranked teams
Team B plays #43 & #44 ranked teams
Per current SOS, Team A has an easier schedule.
However, the probability of Team A going undefeated is significantly lower than Team B.
They need to weight the SOS based on probability of losing, not simple averages of where teams are ranked.
Let’s take a simple example.
Team A plays #1 ranked and #90 ranked teams
Team B plays #43 & #44 ranked teams
Per current SOS, Team A has an easier schedule.
However, the probability of Team A going undefeated is significantly lower than Team B.
They need to weight the SOS based on probability of losing, not simple averages of where teams are ranked.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 12:26 am to Jajofl
quote:Is it confirmed that they do not make any allowance/adjustment for the effect you mention?
They need to weight the SOS based on probability of losing, not simple averages of where teams are ranked.
Posted on 11/6/19 at 3:36 am to Big Scrub TX
They chose whichever option brings the team they wanted all along.
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