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re: CFB Betting Thread: W6
Posted on 10/3/19 at 2:58 pm to The Funnie Five
Posted on 10/3/19 at 2:58 pm to The Funnie Five
quote:
My system
Care to elaborate? Always interested in hearing about analytical models for football. Most systems I have heard of involve weighting different metrics based on the determined ranking of the opposing team.
This post was edited on 10/3/19 at 2:59 pm
2
Posted on 10/3/19 at 3:17 pm to hubertcumberdale
I have my own analytics model that I tweak constantly. Looks at about 20 metrics.
Has Temple winning by 16ish.
It isn't that great at predicting actual scores, but decent for scoring margin and serves its purpose for comparing teams side-by-side in specific categories like YPP for each off vs def, PPG for each off vs. def, 3rd down % for each off v. defense, and Red Zone % for each off v. def.
ECU's offense is not going to do well. Temple's offense won't break records, but it has a much easier path to success.
End of the day, it's just fun to play with the numbers and there is still luck, as everyone knows.
Has Temple winning by 16ish.
It isn't that great at predicting actual scores, but decent for scoring margin and serves its purpose for comparing teams side-by-side in specific categories like YPP for each off vs def, PPG for each off vs. def, 3rd down % for each off v. defense, and Red Zone % for each off v. def.
ECU's offense is not going to do well. Temple's offense won't break records, but it has a much easier path to success.
End of the day, it's just fun to play with the numbers and there is still luck, as everyone knows.
This post was edited on 10/3/19 at 3:18 pm
Posted on 10/3/19 at 3:17 pm to hubertcumberdale
quote:
Care to elaborate? Always interested in hearing about analytical models for football. Most systems I have heard of involve weighting different metrics based on the determined ranking of the opposing team.
Years of trial and error. Finally was able to create a system that I can rely on a few years ago and I have ridden with it with minor tweaks since. Had a rough start to this season but I've killed it the last 2 weeks to put me up by a decent amount.
I feel like too many people try to be too complex with their models. My model only uses 4 inputs. Used 3 inputs in 2017 and 2018 and added a 4th in the offseason. The key is you have to do your research and legwork to figure out which inputs truly matter. With that being said the inputs I use are rather complex statistics and aren't simple stats like "yards per game" or "rushing defense"
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