re: Tropical Storm Karen - Low End Gulf Threat

After looking a little better today, likely from Jerry being void of deep convection, Karen is once again a mess with the MLC located on the north shore of PR with what appears to be the LLC racing off to the NE. In disorganized systems like this one there are usually multiple vorts rotating around a larger elongated circulation and it is possible that the storm spit one of those off the the NE and another one is tightening up under the deep convection near the MLC.







00z Early Cycle Tracks



Still a lot to be worked out but one good sign is that the HWRF, HMON, and HAFS all keep Karen weak over the next 5 days.