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re: Michael Burry calls passive investments/index funds a bubble
Posted on 9/6/19 at 4:23 pm to UpstairsComputer
Posted on 9/6/19 at 4:23 pm to UpstairsComputer
quote:I don’t understand your argument here. There there is plenty of people, funds, money, etc. who are not doing any of this, like it’s been done forever. Unless the growth trends, market cap distribution is somehow different than the fundamentals would suggest historically, then what basis do you have for this?
The fact is people are disregarding earnings, debt levels, corporate governance, etc in order to buy the indexes.
Furthermore, how exactly does someone investing in the broad indexes, impact anything within the market, between the individual stocks?
Posted on 9/6/19 at 5:10 pm to buckeye_vol
I may not understand your question, but I think what you're asking is why do I think people are disregarding fundamentals when investing in an index? If you know 14% of your investment will be bankrupt effecting all of the other investments should one factor change - in this case interest rates rising and liquidity tightening (see Q42018) - you have to ignore this information (or decide the risk is worth it) in order to proceed with the investment anyway.
Regarding the second question, if an individual company's stock price can be artificially pumped up by virtue of being in the right index and the passive buying of their shares, that company gets to do any number of things from issuing debt to dilution of shares, etc. in order to stay afloat whereas before the rise of index funds an active manager would cut it from it's holdings for not meeting criteria (debt levels, earnings, growth, or whatever the fund's objective was) and we'd all find out who was swimming naked when the tide went out.
I read this story earlier this week, but I've been reading about the passive indexing bubble for years. It makes sense to me. Here's one I read last year that's pretty thorough: LINK
Regarding the second question, if an individual company's stock price can be artificially pumped up by virtue of being in the right index and the passive buying of their shares, that company gets to do any number of things from issuing debt to dilution of shares, etc. in order to stay afloat whereas before the rise of index funds an active manager would cut it from it's holdings for not meeting criteria (debt levels, earnings, growth, or whatever the fund's objective was) and we'd all find out who was swimming naked when the tide went out.
I read this story earlier this week, but I've been reading about the passive indexing bubble for years. It makes sense to me. Here's one I read last year that's pretty thorough: LINK
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