re: Filing a credit card dispute - what's the likelihood of full approval?

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This is why they have travel insurance

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The common misconception with travel insurance is that you can just cancel whenever, for whatever reason, and receive your money back.

99% of travel insurance offered still requires some extenuating circumstance (medical, strike, political conflict, weather, etc.)

In the case of weather, these policies all have different rules. They typically require the area to be under evacuation, or at minimum, Tropical Storm warning.