re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability

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polls are used to shape the narrative and suppress conservative votes, especially in a presidential election year

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But they’ve been pretty accurate the last couple of elections. Polling in 2016 missed the popular vote by 1 point (although it was much less reliable on a state-by-state basis). No reason to think that we can’t use polling to draw some conclusions about the race.

I think it’s pretty safe to say that Trump will outperform his approval rating in most cases but If he’s 19 points underwater in a state, it’s pretty unlikely that he’s gonna win it.