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re: Rank Trump 2020 Pickup and Loss States by probability

Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:35 am to
Posted by dcbl
Good guys wear white hats.
Member since Sep 2013
29773 posts
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:35 am to
quote:

New Hampshire - no
Minnesota - no
Nevada - maybe
New Mexico - no
Virginia - maybe, but likely no

quote:
Michigan
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Florida


I don't think he loses any of these. Economy is greater in all of these states since 2016. You telling me these people are angry that jobs have come back?


we could feasibly take Colorado as well

Florida is 100% safe for us, Dems will put on a full court press in GA & NC, but won't take either

Arizona will be tight, but I'm pretty sure we hold on there

the ones we need to worry about are MI, WI & PA

we only have to keep ONE of those and we win, WI is the one I'm most concerned about, don't see us losing MI or PA, even if Sleepy/Creepy Joe is the nominee
Posted by inelishaitrust
Oxford, MS
Member since Jan 2008
26079 posts
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:36 am to
Y’all are allergic to polling, huh?
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13112 posts
Posted on 6/12/19 at 9:37 am to
quote:

we could feasibly take Colorado as well


Doubtful, but perhaps it is close enough that Gardner can hold onto that Senate seat.

quote:

we only have to keep ONE of those and we win, WI is the one I'm most concerned about, don't see us losing MI or PA, even if Sleepy/Creepy Joe is the nominee


WI is looking better imho due to the f***up that their current Dem governor is and the state Supreme Court election upset.

MI is not going to repeat in 2020. It was a story of lack of Detroit turnout which Dems will not repeat in 2020.

PA is going to be a barnburner. Lots of new Trump voters in that state in 2016, and Philly had decent turnout in 2016 for Clinton.
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