re: Is my retirement thinking flawed?

Yes that’s true, but you should look at the different rates so you know your options.

Also what’s your age currently? That has a big factor in the calculations.

For example I’m mid 30’s and my family has saved well so far for retirement. If I run a few simulation at varying average return rates (2.5, 5, and 6.5) I have like $4 mil, $10mil or $30mil if I work until 65 with a 80%, 50%, and 30% likelihood.

I mean hell - if I catch it right and get the 30% one - I’m quitting early and going fishing. Do I think it’s likely to happen, no. However I know I’m potentially on the right track to change my kids and grandkids lives drastically (if I want to).