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Better Thread: Saints Division Clinching Scenarios Week 13

Posted on 11/25/18 at 3:30 pm
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
143980 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 3:30 pm
Saints will clinch the NFC South Division Championship next weekend with:

Saints Win (@ DAL on TNF) & Panthers Loss or Tie (@ TB Sunday @ noon)

OR

Saints Tie & Panthers Loss

there may be more playoff clinching scenarios... I'll look at that when this weekend's games end
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
42827 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 3:31 pm to
If I remember we clinch a playoff spot with a win on Thursday.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
143980 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 3:32 pm to
quote:

If I remember we clinch a playoff spot with a win on Thursday.

don't think a win by itself gets it done b/c there's a number of 5 loss teams out there that could also get to 11 wins
Posted by t00f
Not where you think I am
Member since Jul 2016
99810 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 3:33 pm to
As much as I will be watching for that, unless we have a huge collapse this should take care of itself.

Aside from that keeping an eye on Chicago Incase we have to settle for second seed is going to be huge.
This post was edited on 11/25/18 at 3:34 pm
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
42827 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 3:35 pm to
ah okay I was trying to find that tweet but can't find it oh well just keep winning!
Posted by EYEDOCNO
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2004
1153 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 3:36 pm to
According to playoffstatus.com our magic number to clinch the 6 seed is one.

Current Magic Numbers



Today's early games have not been figured in yet.
This post was edited on 11/25/18 at 3:39 pm
Posted by G The Tiger Fan
Member since Apr 2015
110034 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 3:39 pm to
Hey rt3 ... off topic but you see what's going on in Hattiesburg right now? (College basketball-related)
Posted by bonethug0180
Avondale
Member since Jul 2018
4635 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 3:43 pm to
We do clinch with a win Thursday. I ran it through the playoff machine and tried every scenario.

I tried explaining this in the other thread. There are ZERO scenarios that put us out if we win Thursday.

If we win Thursday we clinch the 6 seed. If we win ANY 2 we clinch the 3 seed.
This post was edited on 11/25/18 at 3:45 pm
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
143980 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 3:44 pm to
quote:

According to playoffstatus.com our magic number to clinch the 6 seed is one.

Current Magic Numbers



Today's early games have not been figured in yet.

Here are the 6-5 NFC teams right now

Panthers (we can take care of that ourselves)
Cowboys (we can take care of that ourselves)
Redskins (we already took care of that ourselves)
Seahawks (we don't play them at all)

the Seahawks are the 1 team that keeps me from fully agreeing that a win Thursday gets us into the playoffs

Seattle hosts San Fran next Sunday... but they also have both the Vikings & Chiefs on their remaining schedule
Posted by bonethug0180
Avondale
Member since Jul 2018
4635 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 3:45 pm to
Sea and Minny play each other. We are GUARANTEED a better record than one of them if we win Thursday.
Posted by keakar
Member since Jan 2017
30152 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 3:49 pm to
i think we are already in the playoffs no matter what happens now that carolina lost today.

i think all that remains to be settled is do we get home field with the 1st seed or settle for the second seed and both will get a bye week

if we somehow falter we start talking about dropping into the pack then but i see no way we can get eliminated even losing every game from here out

Posted by bonethug0180
Avondale
Member since Jul 2018
4635 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 3:51 pm to
That's not true either. If we finish 10-6 there are at least two teams that could finish ahead in the wildcard, and Car would have the division.

Win Thursday and we are in. Win 2 and we are guaranteed the 3 seed.
Posted by t00f
Not where you think I am
Member since Jul 2016
99810 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 3:52 pm to
I can’t imagine, even though there is a good chance, seeing a 15-1 Saints. Wow
Posted by LSUSkip
Central, LA
Member since Jul 2012
22135 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 9:20 pm to
Carolina doesn't control their destiny anymore in regards to the playoffs.
Posted by bonethug0180
Avondale
Member since Jul 2018
4635 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 9:28 pm to
They can finish 11-5 if they win out, and we could finish 10-6.

That's absolute worst case scenario and won't happen, and I agree Car doesn't "control their own destiny", but they are absolutely still technically in play, and have a good shot at a wild card.
This post was edited on 11/25/18 at 9:42 pm
Posted by LSUSkip
Central, LA
Member since Jul 2012
22135 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 9:30 pm to
Theoretically yes. There are other 5 loss teams that will obviously lose again. I just felt good typing it.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
143980 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 9:33 pm to
quote:

Hey rt3 ... off topic but you see what's going on in Hattiesburg right now? (College basketball-related)

I did... good win by Carey over a DI
Posted by bonethug0180
Avondale
Member since Jul 2018
4635 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 9:41 pm to
Definitely. Knowing they are on thin ice, and possibly out if they lose to us twice, is a very good feeling.
Posted by Brettesaurus Rex
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2009
38261 posts
Posted on 11/25/18 at 10:00 pm to
TB ain't beating Carolina.
Posted by Sithil83
Round Rock, Tx
Member since Oct 2016
23 posts
Posted on 11/26/18 at 12:30 am to
Currently 8 teams with 5 losses or better including the Saints. 6 teams get in.

Teams with 5 losses currently are Dallas, Washington, Seattle, & Carolina.

If we win Thursday we move to 11-1, with 11-5 being the worst possible scenario.

Beating Dallas gives them 6 losses, so they're out
Already beat Washington so have the head to head tie break and they're out.

That only leaves 6 teams including the Saints, so a Win Thursday does secure a playoff spot. In addition a Win and then any other win in the last 4 games or a single Carolina loss clinches the division.

So magic numbers are:
1: win and have playoff berth
2: wins or 1 win and a Carolina loss for Division Title
4?: I'm not sure the tie breakers with Chicago, but they do play the Rams so 1 of them has to lose.
5: Win out for home field barring any additional losses by LA Rams
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