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Is this a market correction like Feb 2018, or is October a harbinger for a recession?
Posted on 10/27/18 at 11:23 pm
Posted on 10/27/18 at 11:23 pm
14 of 19 bear market signals triggered, Bank of America says
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
This post was edited on 10/27/18 at 11:24 pm
6
Posted on 10/28/18 at 12:27 am to rickgrimes
"Bears make money. Bulls make money. Hogs get slaughtered."
- Jim Cramer
- Jim Cramer
Posted on 10/28/18 at 8:26 pm to rickgrimes
Posted on 10/28/18 at 9:11 pm to rickgrimes
I'm certainly not laughing about it and am changing my strategy a bit. Selling some of my longs and taking the profits to free up cash for expanding my participation in options to take advantage of the volatility.
Posted on 10/28/18 at 9:54 pm to rickgrimes
10 year business cycle. It should be a big correction, but IMO, the Trump effect will delay a full blown recession until 2020 if he loses in 2020 (somehow).
I think we've got another 6 months to go before the losses turn into recession, if they in fact continue.
I think we've got another 6 months to go before the losses turn into recession, if they in fact continue.
Posted on 10/28/18 at 10:51 pm to rickgrimes
My thought is recessions are not defined by the market but rather by GDP.
I think we are going to have decent economic growth and a stagnant stock market ahead for a while.
I think we are going to have decent economic growth and a stagnant stock market ahead for a while.
Posted on 10/29/18 at 9:56 pm to cave canem
Care to expound on why? Not saying you are wrong, just curious. Industrial data is showing signs of a deceleration, whether the culprit is inflation or otherwise.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 5:27 pm to rickgrimes
As it stands now, this is more like Feb than a new bear market. That could change. The market is digesting a few things right now much of it happening at the same time.
Soon the election will be over, that’s one out of the way. The interest rate hikes by the fed is one of them but I think that concern is over blown. China is a different story. That one may not be as quickly resolved as people think. For one thing, some believe China started selling a lot of treasuries and impacted the interest rates. Read the October 4th speech by VP Pence. It slammed China on all kinds of stuff. Maybe it was part of the negotiating tactics but it laid out some real concerns, economic, political, and national defense.
ETA adding link to speech. It’s a whitehouse.gov link so MSM click free
Pence Speech on China Policy
Soon the election will be over, that’s one out of the way. The interest rate hikes by the fed is one of them but I think that concern is over blown. China is a different story. That one may not be as quickly resolved as people think. For one thing, some believe China started selling a lot of treasuries and impacted the interest rates. Read the October 4th speech by VP Pence. It slammed China on all kinds of stuff. Maybe it was part of the negotiating tactics but it laid out some real concerns, economic, political, and national defense.
ETA adding link to speech. It’s a whitehouse.gov link so MSM click free
Pence Speech on China Policy
This post was edited on 10/30/18 at 5:31 pm
Posted on 10/30/18 at 5:46 pm to CajunTiger92
Too early for recession. Not here ladies and gents.
But that doesn’t mean you won’t get gut checked for another 5-10%. I’ll take that downside risk with a +10% upside risk over the next 6 months.
But that doesn’t mean you won’t get gut checked for another 5-10%. I’ll take that downside risk with a +10% upside risk over the next 6 months.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 6:58 pm to LSUcam7
quote:
Too early for recession. Not here ladies and gents.
I agree with this. My thought is that we bottom in a week or two with a good chance to rally going into the first month or two into 2019. That said, I think the long term direction is less clear now than it was a month ago.
Posted on 10/30/18 at 10:36 pm to LSUcam7
quote:
+10% upside
No chance. Long T-Notes + Value names
SAP500 has 7-15% DOWNSIDE with zero upside. The US market today is 132.8% of GDP meaning we are in SIGNIFICANTLY OVERBOUGHT territory and we are still not sold to levels that properly price in expected growth FY19 (which continuously keeps getting revised down as it is).
That last GDP report was the most abysmal 3.5% you could get(+3.3% government spending while exports were down 2.2%)
I'm not saying the party is over but it's getting really late. I'm bullish on the long term of the US economy but I think at best equities trade sideways and we see the inevitable recession in late 2019. Will never be like 2008-2009 though. Scary times.
One last note: Companies in the SAP500 are extremely leveraged at the moment. Roughly 8 dollars of debt for every 1 dollar of cash. I think we are fine but we all saw what happened in 2008-2009 when households were way too leveraged.
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