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re: Great prognosticator- Nate Silver &538- 75% Dems take House
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:44 pm to Tony Tiger89
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:44 pm to Tony Tiger89
I’m not a liberal but I think the 75% chance dem take back house is very reasonable.
4
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:47 pm to Northwestern tiger
How much you want to wager ???
Posted on 8/16/18 at 1:49 pm to Northwestern tiger
I think a Dem majority in House is the more likely outcome. There is a lot of history to support this.
Obama and Clinton both saw significant losses in midterms but still managed reelection by healthy margins.
I see the same scenario here.
Dems eek out a majority in the House, misread the results, dramatically overplay their hand and get crushed by Trump in 2020.
Obama and Clinton both saw significant losses in midterms but still managed reelection by healthy margins.
I see the same scenario here.
Dems eek out a majority in the House, misread the results, dramatically overplay their hand and get crushed by Trump in 2020.
Posted on 8/16/18 at 2:02 pm to Northwestern tiger
quote:
I’m not a liberal but I think the 75% chance dem take back house is very reasonable.
75 may be kinda high but history has shown the opposing party always picks up seats in these elections. Its not ridiculous to predict the Dems will based off history alone
Posted on 8/16/18 at 5:07 pm to Northwestern tiger
I am a right leaning independent and think that 75% is about the right probability. Silber missed the Presidential election but has been pretty damn good throughout his career.
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