re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

It's always interesting when something like this is rolling along but has basically no model support. So what are the models seeing? What are they missing? CIMSS analysis is showing some healthy low level vort (spin) with the 00z analysis, so that might shift the 00z global models some.

One thing we can look at now, is the old fashioned SHIPS model, it wasn't run at 18z but the 00z just published.



So a couple of things jump out, it shows steady strengthening, it shows shear being a "positive" (it is seeing a low shear environment) and dry air being a negative.

The global models are also seeing low shear and dry air. Without doing a deep dive, the global models are probably keeping this from developing because of dry air. Just a real quick and not very extensive look at things