Tactics Thread: Trends at the 2018 WC

The tactical trends in this WC are a little different from previous WC's, partly due to the variety of styles, and partly due to the fact that there is not one style that is dominate or in vogue.

In 2010 WC, we saw the double pivot employed by Spain, with two ball-handling DM's in Busquets and Xabi Alonso, kill teams with a suffocating possession game. It was truly the tournament of the 4-2-3-1, with Spain finally using it to great effect once they decided they couldn't jam both Torres and Villa into the same side.

In the 2014 WC, we saw extensive use of the three man defense, which was employed by four teams in the knockout stages. We also saw the continued inability of classic no. 9s to impose their ability on a game.

Here are some trends I saw in this year's group games.

1. Pressing-Pressing is rare enough in international soccer, so it was surprising to see it employed so prominently in some matches. Watching the Mexico-Germany game, the Mexicans employed a zonal pressing strategy that was selective, in the sense they pressed hard in certain areas of the field while remaining the low block, preventing their spacing from getting stretched, while also breaking upfield remarkably fast. This was also helped by Germany's decision to bring too many of the same type of player. Kroos and Gundogan are similar players, Khedira can't run anymore, and while Rudy is a passable solution at DM, they had better options that they left at home. Germany also brought quite a few of the same type of attacking player, with no player on the field who could stretch the game vertically, and no player willing to make dummy runs to stretch the game horizontally.

Another example is during the first Swiss goal against Serbia. In the first half, Serbia was clearly the better team, as they pressed as a team, though not zonally like the Mexicans. In that half, they pressed so that the distance between the forward line and defensive line wasn't stretched significantly, and choked out many Swiss attacks that way. On that first goal by the Swiss, we see Sommer pass quickly to Xhaka, who has two players converge onto him, leaving a massive space in midfield, and with a relatively simple pass, the Serbian team is split into a forward line of 4 and a defensive line of 6 with no midfield. The forward line of 4 made no attempt to get back into shape, which allowed Xhaka to run past them and to take advantage of the opportunity he created by his first station pass which broke the press.

Another example of the press was in the Spain-Portugal game, as the first goal was an example of when Spain wanted to play in the low block and move up the field together as a unit in order to minimize the space for Portugal to play. Portugal had a 3 v 2 overload on the left wing, which wasn't compensated for by the midfield, which led to a 1 v 1 between Nacho and Ronaldo, and eventually the penalty.

We also saw what happened when a team insists on the low block without pressing in the Iran v Portugal game, where Iran's insistence on the low block meant that Carvalho was free to receive the ball without pressure in zone 11, which meant that he could recycle possession, switch play, and attempt incisive passes without any fear of being dispossessed. The Iranians countered at around 13 minutes, with an Iranian attacker shadowing William to the extent that from around the 13th minute to the 35 minute (I think, I have to watch it again to be sure), Carvalho had around two short touches. Santos solution to this was to bring Carvalho back deep to split the CB's, overloading the Iranian attackers with a 3 v 2 situation, giving the man on the ball time to work around the Iranian attackers.

2. The Return of the Classic Striker: The pure no.9 hasn't really performed in the WC of late, with the Golden Shoe going to Muller in 2010, and James in 2014 (the exception to this was Forlan's mercurial performance in 2010, playing in a slightly withdrawn forward role). This WC, the leading scorers are two pure no.9s in Lukaku and Kane, both of whom excel at space-creation in and around the box. Kane exists in a somewhat unconventional system, as Southgate seemingly employs a 3-3-2-2, which leaves Kane in a 1 v 1 with his opposing CB often. Lukaku's game has always been trying to get the ball on the half-turn so he can use his strength to create an opportunity, and Belgium's midfield provides him with that option, as Hazard and De Bruyne move the ball very fast and the team insists on moving the ball from side to side at times, which is where those opportunities in the half-channels mostly arise.

3. The Continued Supremacy of the Midfield Maestro: Since the offside rule change in 2005, the possession game has become dominant. The team with the best DLP usually does well in tournament football. In 2006, you had Pirlo, in 08-12, you had Xavi (with another Pirlo appearance), in 2011 you had the criminally underrated Nestor Ortigoza for Paraguay in the Copa America, in 2016 you had the equally underrated William Carvalho absorbing pressure and relieving it masterfully. This tournament you have the Croatians, who have the best balance in midfield, with Rakitic and Modric holding possession and the underrated Brozovic helping the midfield control the pace of the game. This is with a player like Kovacic on the bench. But a DLP is only as good as his partner, as we saw with Kroos, who was ill-suited to work with an older Khedira, who could not cover space as well as he once could, and Gundogan, who is too similar and not dynamic enough in his movement to help Kroos. This isn't even counting the remarkable Busquets, who always provides an outlet for pressure, and basically is the better version of Carvalho.

Argentina's troubles are linked to their inability to find a place for Banega, and Brazil's continued success is built on Casemiro's ability to play the roles of both destroyer and passer, an underrated quality of his. In general, the best DLP's will be apart of the best teams, as the ability to control the game from deep is the most important quality in the game as it developed after 2005. Hence why a team like Croatia can compete, as well as a team like Switzerland, with Xhaka, who, if he is adequately protected, is a great DLP, though he's a terrible defender. Apart from goalscorer, the DLP will always be the most important player on the field, and teams that do not seemingly have space for a DLP (i.e. France, though Pogba can play this role, Belgium, Uruguay and England among others) might struggle in the bigger games towards the end of the tournament. There are ways of building teams so that you do not need to rely on a DLP (such as Argentina in 2014) but in general the benefits of DLP's outweigh the defensive costs. Croatia has the best in Modric, which means that I feel they could go deep into the tourney.

New trends will be highlighted in the knockout stages, as the talent disparity between teams usually disappears, and it becomes apparent what areas teams excel and what areas teams falter.