quote:
That is where you are dead wrong. He was drafted late in the first round, with a slot of around 3 million. If he goes to school I believe it's super realistic to expect him to be drafted top 5, which is anywhere between 5-2 million more in slot value.

So, let's put in all in prespective, since you say getting an education is the ONLY benefit to coming to LSU.

1. Obviously the education

2. Moving up in the first round allows him to make a lot more money. Obviously, there is no guarantee he moves up in the first round, but chances are he does.

3. Three years in college will make him 3 years older, wiser, stronger, playing against great competition. Similar to the level of minor league ball.

4. Is a combination of 2 And 3. While his signing bonus would be nice, his journey through the minors will not result in a big pay check. So, as he works his way up, that signing bonus will slowly (or quickly if he isn't smart with it) disappear. So, going to LSU could potentially both earn him a much much larger bonus plus get him closer to playing in the MLB quicker (see Bregman).

Now....all that being said, he probably will sign with the Brewers. However, it isn't as far fetched and as crazy as some of you think.

I think the education is a non-issue. The guy isn't coming to LSU (or any school) to get an education. He's coming to play baseball. Which is fine.

He certainly could move up in the draft. But that draft would be what 2, 3 years away? He was picked 21st now. There isn't a whole hell of a lot of room to move up even if the risk works out for him. Plus, what's the time value of money here? You could argue $3.5 million NOW is worth as much or more than what he "could" get in a future signing bonus 2-3 years later.

quote:
Three years in college will make him 3 years older, wiser, stronger, playing against great competition. Similar to the level of minor league ball.

If he can do that in minor league ball AND have $3.5 million to invest while gaining that experience, why do it in college for "free"?

It's not a similar situation to Bregman in that Bregman's injury kept him out of the first round. For Bregman, it was either first round or bust and he (likely) would have been one but for the injury. When he wasn't taken in the first round, he had significant room to improve his draft position. For Turang, that's not quite the case since he is already a first rounder

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Posted by StTiger

Baton Rouge

Member since Nov 2008

2935 posts

Posted on 6/11/18 at 2:15 pm to Alt26

quote:
Plus, what's the time value of money here? You could argue $3.5 million NOW is worth as much or more than what he "could" get in a future signing bonus 2-3 years later.

You really couldn't argue that. Without knowing the interest rate, let's assume 10% annual which is very high and the entire 3.5 mil is invested. And this isn't taking into account taxes (30-40%) and paying someone to manage the money AND ignoring him using any of it for personal use

At best over 3 years, he's approaching 5 mil (very generous rounding) in this ridiculous, impossible scenario I laid out. Likely he'd may be approaching his initial bonus by the end of 3 years; if lucky

Now if he came to school, 13 up is 4 mil plus; 4.5 is top 10; just under 6 mil for top 5

EDIT: FYI present value of 4.5 mil is still above his assigned slot value (at 10%... Still crazy high, but wanted to stay consistent)

TVM only supports him coming to LSU
And the likelihood is that (if he is to make it as a pro) he'd get there in less time following college; recent stats support college guys spend less time in the minors

That said, doubt he comes to LSU

If I were his parent, I'd advise him to bet on himself and shoot for top 5 in three years, but that's because I'm all about setting future me up

This post was edited on 6/11/18 at 2:22 pm

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Posted by Nissanmaxima

Member since Feb 2006

14928 posts

Posted on 6/11/18 at 2:36 pm to Alt26

quote:
I think the education is a non-issue. The guy isn't coming to LSU (or any school) to get an education. He's coming to play baseball. Which is fine.

You have no idea. Some kids place an education higher than playing baseball. Some kids just want to go and experience college life. Baseball won't carry him for the rest of his life unless he not only makes it to the bigs but sustains a very good MLB career.

With all that said and done, I think he takes the money, min of 3 mill is awfully hard to pass up