re: Alberto - Steadily Moving Inland

quote:

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I know it's supposed to be the next big thing and eventually replace GFS, but how accurate has it's initial runs been? I don't put a ton of stock into anything long-term, but it definitely raises an eyebrow to see a run like that.

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I know you're not asking me, and I'm no professional. But I have been watching the tropics extremely closely for 23 years and have learned a thing or two.

This new model is a brand new experimental model. We have very, very limited results to compare it to so far, so we really don't know how accurate it's going to be. When it began showing this last week, we all laughed and said "welp, that model is going to be shite". But then the regular GFS started showing it. So we were all like "hmm, the GFS is on it now too. Probably because its future experimental model is all over it, though". Then today the Euro joined in. That's raising everyone's eyebrows because the Euro is historically one of the most accurate models for tropical weather.

Now, the GFS and Euro models could only be picking it up based simply on the fact that the future GFS is picking it up. I believe all models have the other models' output programmed into them and are supposed to take it into consideration. So bottom line is they could only be picking it up because the GFS picked it up. They're going to take the GFS seriously since it's a major model. The GFS picks it up because its experimental future model is picking it up.

We will have to wait and see. It could be (and probably is) a huge bust or it could end up being the most accurate, jaw-dropping weather model ever created.