re: If Sonny Corleone doesn't get whacked, does the Corleone family win the war?

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I was always wondered what Sonny would have thought about Michael killing Fredo. I don't think Sonny would have stood for it. He was a hothead, but he wasn't ice cold like Michael.

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Both Sonny and Michael demonstrate significant loyalty to family (hell, Sonny's loyalty to his sister got him killed) but Sonny was definitely more old-school and instinctive in his loyalty. Michael killing Fredo was absolutely symptomatic of what he represented in terms of evolving and bringing the crime family into a different and more brutally practical era.

Honestly, though, that one act kind of makes Michael's transition from Family man to Business man complete. Fredo posed no real threat to Michael once Michael knew what happened. Michael could have easily isolated him and ensured that Fredo had neither power or opportunity to betray Michael again...and Fredo would have just taken it without a fight. Given how Michael had plenty of time to think about what happened before he ordered the hit, it's hard to see his action as anything other than coldblooded retaliation just because he can't allow such things to pass without dealing with them harshly and definitively. It sends a message to everyone that Michael will do whatever he thinks necessary to keep the Business running without complications. This is exactly what Vito feared would eventually happen in the new post-war era of organized crime.

Edit: I never really thought about it in these terms before, but it was Michael who proposed killing McCluskey, right? That actually kind of foreshadows everything to come. Before, no police captain had ever been killed by the Mafia. There was a system, there were rules (kind of mirrors the decision of the Syndicate to kill Dutch Schultz because they were afraid he'd murder Dewey and bring hell down on them.) Michael's murder of McCluskey almost heralds a new, more mercenary era where such things as drugs or killing the people you're supposed to leave alone are no longer off the table. I mean, it didn't take long for Roth to start spraying bedroom windows where the wife and kids might very well be.