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Started By
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re: Can someone please justify why Orgeron kicked the FG against ND?
Posted on 1/29/18 at 3:45 pm to Geauxst Writer
Posted on 1/29/18 at 3:45 pm to Geauxst Writer
quote:
8 out of 10 coaches would have kicked the field goal to go up 3 points and rely on the strongest part of the team - Aranda's Tiger Defense to hold them and win the game.
I don't take what coaches are conditioned to do as evidence that it's the right thing to do.
What Orgeron did was by the book, the traditional method of coaching. I'm saying many coaches haven't caught up to what the numbers have been saying for years now, that the book is wrong. The rate at which teams go for it on 4th and short is ridiculously low, something like 20%, when the odds of converting that is around 65%. That's insane that teams aren't already going for it at that down and distance at a 50% clip, minimum. The fact that the distance of the play in question was inches from the goalline makes the decision even more egregious.
That's not basing a decision on sound evidence. It's assigning an inordinate amount of weight to the negative outcome, which will happen sometimes. But you cannot coach to avoid negative outcomes or you won't ever win anything of significance. Yeah if he loses because he missed the TD he would've been roasted, so what? That's the life of a HC in major CFB.
But to be fair to Orgeron, there's value in going by the book. That's what old people(his bosses) find comfort in. Explaining a loss in which you did things by the book like most other coaches in the past have done is much easier to do than losing when you decided to buck convention. I guess the entire situation confirms what a lot of us already knew about him; he's more concerned with keeping his job than winning.
This post was edited on 1/29/18 at 3:52 pm
3
Posted on 1/29/18 at 3:49 pm to Goldrush25
quote:All of this is spot on
I don't take what coaches are conditioned to do as evidence that it's the right thing to do.
What Orgeron did was by the book, the traditional method of coaching. I'm saying many coaches haven't caught up to what the numbers have been saying for years now, that the book is wrong. The rate at which teams go for it on 4th and short is ridiculously low, something like 20%, when the odds of converting that is around 65%. That's insane that teams aren't already going for it at that down and distance at a 50% clip, minimum. The fact that the distance of the play in question was inches makes the decision even more egregious.
That's not basing a decision on sound evidence. It's assigning an inordinate amount of weight to the negative outcome, which will happen sometimes. But you cannot coach to avoid negative outcomes or you won't ever win anything of significance.
But to be fair to Orgeron, there's value in going by the book. That's what old people(his bosses) find comfort in. Explaining a loss in which you did things by the book like most other coaches in the past have done is much easier to do than losing when you decided to buck convention.
Years back, Bill belichick went for it on 4th and like 4 from his own 3o yard line when he had the lead late in the 4th against Manning and the colts
They failed to get it, manning led them on the winning drive, and the media hammered belichick
Well, a few days later, someone ran the numbers, and going for it on 4th actually gave them the best % chance of winning.........
Sometimes, making the poular decision is easier, even if it is the wrong one
Posted on 1/29/18 at 3:58 pm to Goldrush25
quote:
But to be fair to Orgeron, there's value in going by the book. That's what old people(his bosses) find comfort in. Explaining a loss in which you did things by the book like most other coaches in the past have done is much easier to do than losing when you decided to buck convention.
I think the man is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't-- regardless of the decision or circumstance. I won't get into any specifics, but in hiring, promoting, on field calls-- O gets criticism when he goes by the book and when he does not. Once some people don't like the hire or the hiring process, their minds are difficult to change.
We will see what happens next year. My guess-- some will be happy and some won't. As you said, that's the life of a coach
Posted on 1/29/18 at 4:43 pm to Goldrush25
quote:
What Orgeron did was by the book, the traditional method of coaching. I'm saying many coaches haven't caught up to what the numbers have been saying for years now, that the book is wrong. The rate at which teams go for it on 4th and short is ridiculously low, something like 20%, when the odds of converting that is around 65%. That's insane that teams aren't already going for it at that down and distance at a 50% clip, minimum. The fact that the distance of the play in question was inches from the goalline makes the decision even more egregious.
That's not basing a decision on sound evidence. It's assigning an inordinate amount of weight to the negative outcome, which will happen sometimes. But you cannot coach to avoid negative outcomes or you won't ever win anything of significance. Yeah if he loses because he missed the TD he would've been roasted, so what? That's the life of a HC in major CFB.
But to be fair to Orgeron, there's value in going by the book. That's what old people(his bosses) find comfort in. Explaining a loss in which you did things by the book like most other coaches in the past have done is much easier to do than losing when you decided to buck convention. I guess the entire situation confirms what a lot of us already knew about him; he's more concerned with keeping his job than winning.
agreed.
coaches that have equity built up would've gone for it IMO.
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