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re: Can someone please justify why Orgeron kicked the FG against ND?
Posted on 1/29/18 at 2:28 pm to Goldrush25
Posted on 1/29/18 at 2:28 pm to Goldrush25
I don't think your analysis is complete. Having any lead forces the opponent to score.
What's the EV difference between forcing a team to go, say, seventy yards to get within field goal range and win (if you fail to score) vs. forcing a team to go, say, forty-five yards to get within range of a field goal to tie or seventy-five for a win? (Assuming you can kick it deep enough to prevent a runback or at least stop the runback by the twenty-five.)
What's the EV difference between forcing a team to go, say, seventy yards to get within field goal range and win (if you fail to score) vs. forcing a team to go, say, forty-five yards to get within range of a field goal to tie or seventy-five for a win? (Assuming you can kick it deep enough to prevent a runback or at least stop the runback by the twenty-five.)
1
Posted on 1/29/18 at 2:32 pm to BigSlick
Most coaches facing this situation don't have to call upon a kicker who MAY have a 50/50 chance at success from point blank at an angle. LSU had marched all the way down the field on that drive and getting a foot was all that was needed.
Odds were no worse for the TD than a FG and 2:00 were still left.
Odds were no worse for the TD than a FG and 2:00 were still left.
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