Predicting 2018 Vegas win totals for all 32 NFL teams

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New Orleans Saints

Projected 2018 over/under: 9.5 wins (Over even, Under -120)

The Saints' defense came to life in 2017, and young stars such as Marshon Lattimore and Sheldon Rankins should continue to improve in 2018, but it's hard to believe it will remain a top-10 unit. Teams that improve as much as the Saints did -- they jumped from 31st to eighth in defensive DVOA -- often decline the following season. It's difficult to imagine Alvin Kamara being as productive as he was on a per-touch basis next season, and Drew Brees will be 39 years old. Age gets every quarterback eventually, and Brees threw shorter passes and relied more heavily on his receivers in 2017 than ever before. The Saints should still be good, but there's certainly risk here.

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Atlanta Falcons

Projected 2018 over/under: 9 wins


The Falcons brought back virtually their entire personnel core, but they didn't get remotely similar results with a revamped staff of assistants; after outscoring teams by 8.4 points per game in 2016, they only topped their opposition by an average of 2.4 points in 2017. They only hit 10 wins by virtue of a pair of breathless last-second victories in September, including a drop in the end zone by the Bears in Week 1 and the Golden Tate 10-second runoff play in Week 3. Atlanta's ninth-ranked offense by DVOA was unfairly blamed for the struggles of a defense that finished 22nd, so if the offense does play as poorly in 2018 as people perceived it to perform in 2017, things could get worse.

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Carolina Panthers

Projected 2018 over/under: 9 wins (Over -120, Under Even)


The Panthers enter an uncertain offseason as Jerry Richardson prepares to sell the team, which might impact their ability to upgrade during the spring. It would be nice to bring back Julius Peppers, who might retire after an 11-sack season, but it seems likely Carolina will lose star guard Andrew Norwell to free agency after signing fellow guard Trai Turner to an extension in July. Carolina drove to that 11-5 record with a 7-1 mark in close games, and that sort of dramatic performance in one-score games drove precipitous declines for the Panthers in 2014 and 2016.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected 2018 over/under: 6.5 wins


The Bucs underachieved in 2017, in part because they went 3-7 in games decided by a touchdown or less, including four such losses to playoff teams. Numbers suggest the Bucs should improve, but it's difficult to see a high ceiling for Tampa Bay when it is bringing back frustrating coach Dirk Koetter and is still stuck in a division with three stacked teams in Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans. A healthy season from Jameis Winston -- who posted the league's seventh-best passer rating after returning from injury in Week 13 -- would help.

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