re: Early Senate '18 map show Reps picking up 6 seats.

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Normally true. But 10 DNC states were won by trump. And DNC stand of no compromise combined with DNC leadership is not promising for these seats. Expect GOP gains in Senate. 11 Might be as unlikely as President Trump!

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Yeah, we don't know what is going to happen here. this is what I love about politics.

The reality is the only thing working in the Rs favor right now is the map. And in 2016, we found out that maps don't always work the way they are supposed to.

The three big things that pop out to me are...
* What role will trump and congress's unpopularity play in the election?
* what will happen in the primary challenges? Will that provide a stronger or weaker candidate?
* What happens with tax reform? This is probably the biggest risk. It could make or break the election.

And while the map is favorable to Rs, the dems also have a few spots they think they might be able to pick off - AZ and NV, outside chance in nebraska.

My guess is that the Rs will pick up a seat or two. Probably winning 2-3 dem held seats (ND/MT/IN) and then lose a seat or two (AZ, NV).

Who knows though? The Rs really need a strong election this cycle though. 2020 map is almost all R, and with it being a presidential year it could be a big election. And then 2022, the map also has some states the Ds think they can pick off.