re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

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so you're saying there are complex pattern that will steer this storm?

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Yeah, that's what it looks like early yet.

Questions of how a west pacific storm cutting north will impact the expected trough expected to dig into the nation's mid section later in the weekend and into next week. Furthermore how that feature will impact the big dome of high pressure sitting over the north central Atlantic. Leaving a large potential spread of potential results.

If the trough does miss both post-harvey blob in the BOC and Irma, what is left to steer both of them isn't apparent and will likely be weak. I hope to avoid the nightmare of another meandering hurricane entering the gulf.

Furthermore how deep (strong) Irma is will also influence how much of that trough it feels. Stronger and it has a better chance of finding the weakness it will create on the west side of that high.

That's just the broad strokes too. Right now, it's too complicated and questionable to say much other than Irma will be cutting the islands a little close for their comfort.

The models historically don't perform terribly well with this sort of set up, as rds mentioned in the previous thread.