re: Anybody remember when RUssia hacked the election?

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base don no evidence.

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You don't have to believe the DNI, and I'm not going to take it as absolute fact, but I don't think we can dismiss it as fake out of hand:

Background to “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections”: The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution

In addition, there is just basic data that indicates that they are one of the primary hacking sources worldwide:

Top 5 Countries Where Cyber Attacks Originate

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A total of 5.14% of cyber attacks are initiated by the Russians.

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And just so it can't be argued that this is a new narrative post-election, this is from 2013:

Which Four Countries Most Actively Hack the U.S.?

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There has been a review in the US intelligence community on who are the most active opponents. China is far in the lead, Russia is second, two others come up.

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So even if you disregard the DNI, that wikileaks typically deals with US and European issues, and just look at the global hacking data, then Russia is already one of top candidates.

So if you want to argue China is reasonable. I won't disagree, but Russia is also reasonable. I just think that since Russia is more likely than to deal with wikileaks than China AND more importantly, Trump had strong campaign rhetoric AGAINST CHINA, makes Russia's probability higher than there base rate.

Not to mention China hacking has decreased:

The Decline in Chinese Cyberattacks: The Story Behind the Numbers

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based on your argument of the following point: 1) you are a reasonable suspect if you hack

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That would be a necessary condition.

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then everyone is a reasonable suspect.

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I don't think the US IC is a reasonable suspect to attack Hillary with Trump as her main opposition and Obama in power.

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Let's see if I can put this into a framework you might remember, and then you can play your contrarian schtick somewhere else... under your argument, any actor in the Universal Set is "reasonable" that's not an argument.

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I say it's reasonable because:

1. Russia is one of the top hacking countries in the world.
2. 5% of all hacks originate from Russia.
3. Our own IC community is highly unlikely to have targeted Hillary.
4. The other main foreign hacking nation, China, has had a decrease in hacking, and Trump was the candidate who took a strong position against them.
5. Wikileaks typically deals with US and Europe, making China an unusual source.
6. Our IC believes Russia was trying to interfere, even if that report is over-relied upon.

So yes, given all that Russia seems like a reasonable source. I am not arguing that they are the source. But even the 5% statistic is reasonable, and I think the circumstances suggests that its higher than that. So even if it's "only" 25%, that's a pretty reasonable suspect.