re: The Unofficial 2017 Wimbledon Thread

It's not ridiculous at +400. You can make a decent case for Cilic.

Here's my unbiased case for Roger:

In addition to Roger's clear edges in experience and fan favoritism, I honestly can't think of anything Cilic does better than him on the court. You could maybe argue that he's better at hitting aces, but Federer more than makes up for that with unreturned serves that aren't aces. Big edge to Roger on 2nd serve as well.

When it comes to neutral rallies, you have to favor Fed probably 60-70% of the time. He's also better on return and can be more aggressive too if he needs to be. Slice backhand and drop shots? Edge Fed. Movement and net play? It's not even close.

Cilic's "fantastic form" is something that has been blown out of proportion too, imo. The only truly impressive match this grass season was his 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 win over Bautista. As mentioned before, he hasn't faced anyone in the top 18 in this Wimbledon run. And while Muller and Querrey are probably top 10ish players on grass, he caught them both at the right time from a fatigue standpoint.

I mean, if your justification for betting Cilic is hoping Roger lays an egg, good luck. That's not the side I want to be on.