NHC is monitoring two areas and giving the one over the Yucatan 30%:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is
located well south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slight
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while the wave moves westward near 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A complex area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Yucatan peninsula by the
weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for some gradual
development of this system while it moves slowly northwestward
toward the southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2 ...

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Posted by rds dc

Member since Jun 2008

19846 posts

Posted on 6/14/17 at 9:44 pm to rds dc

This is a complex setup and the models are still struggling with what to do with it all.

Today the models seem to be keying on the trough lifting slowly northward out of CA and the wave that has just passed the islands and entered the Caribbean Sea. The two areas show up in the latest 850vort (low level spin) analysis and should over time start to interact. One may ultimately become the dominate area or they could slug their way NW as a sloppy mess.

The 12z model runs from today didn't really provide much in the way a clarity. The only thing that stands out is that the Euro EPS (ensemble model) shows two distinct clusters of members. One cluster stays weaker and slides off to the NW through the BOC and into Mexico. The other cluster, takes a more northerly or even NE track into the the Florida Panhandle.

The 18z GFS-para seemed to latch on to this solution: