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re: Who's the best duo of all time? (NBA)

Posted on 6/6/17 at 3:45 pm to
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
111307 posts
Posted on 6/6/17 at 3:45 pm to
quote:

Why is Kobe's similar PER with a significantly higher usage more impressive?
It's more impressive IMO.

There are only so many possessions in a game. If you're using a higher % of posesssions at a 28 PER, that is more impressive IMO than someone doing it without using as many possessions.

Do you every play daily fantasy sports? It's the same reason if you have, say, a $50k salary cap to work with then a player who costs $10k and is projected to score 40 points is more valuable than a player who costs $5k and is projected to score 20 points.

The difference is a finite # of possessions. Just extrapolate that out with a silly hypothetical for proof. Take Lebron, if he could have a 90% usage rate and maintain all of his efficiency and maintain his PER exactly as is, wouldn't that be better for the team as well as more impressive for LeBron to do so?
This post was edited on 6/6/17 at 3:47 pm
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35255 posts
Posted on 6/6/17 at 4:39 pm to
quote:

There are only so many possessions in a game. If you're using a higher % of posesssions at a 28 PER, that is more impressive IMO than someone doing it without using as many possessions.
But a person who uses more possessions should have a higher PER. I just regressed the current season and the 2005-2006, but for each point increase in usage, PER increases by ~0.619. So Kobe's 7.5 point higher usage should have about a 4.6 higher PER.

For example, LeBron's highest PER was 31.7 and his usage is 33.8. MJ's highest PER was 31.7 and his usage was 34.1. Last season Steph 31.5 PER with a usage of 32.6.

Obviously, there are probably diminishing returns and the regressions towards the mean will make the difference between usage and PER greater at the extemes, but a 28.0 PER on a 37.5 usage is about in line with expectations.

And as a comparison, Kobe used about 34 possessions per game in 05-06, and between his points and assists, he accounted for about 44.9 points per game (1.24 points per possession used). In 2012-2013. When LeBron had a PER of 31.6 on a 30.2 usage, he used about 24 possessions per game, and between points and assists, accounted for 43.2 points per game (1.88 points per possession used).

Despite only a 13% higher PER, his points per possession was 51% higher. Now that's efficiency.
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