re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

quote:

---

Probably the opposite happened, retail jumped in to a great degree with stimulus checks.

---

You sure about that? Maybe you are right. I do agree that the stimulus checks added a lot of liquidity and Bitcoin absolutely trades higher on liquidity. But I still think COVID overall muted the effect of the last halving to some extent. A lot of people lost their jobs, many more part time jobs were created, many businesses went out of business and inflation took off.

The last halving top % gain was much less percentage wise than the first two halving tops.

Here are the rough percentage gains after the 3 previous halvings:

1) 50,000% gain one year after the 2012 halving.

2) 8,500% gain nearly one and a half years after the 2016 halving.

3) 1,000% gain one and a half years after the 2020 halving.

I think we will know more about the impact of COVID and the Spot ETFs on the last halving and the upcoming halving. If the downward trend in the top gain after the 2024 halving continues to something like a paltry 2X, then COVID and the Spot ETFs had little impact on the impact of this next halving. If on the other hand after the halving, Bitcoin's ultimate gain this cycle smashes the 2020 (or perhaps even the 2016) cycle gains, then potentially both COVID and the Spot ETFs made a big difference in their own right. If we somehow top the 2016 gains there are going to be many new multi millionaires and billionaires.