re: UF Series Takeaways

Put it this way... you are more likely to score zero runs with no outs and a runner on 2B than 1 out and a runner on 3B.

Run expectancy is an average. What I'm talking about is probability.

From the article I linked, which looks at 2 runners on base:

quote:

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But what about bunting over runners on 1st and 2nd? The run expectancy for runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs is 1.47 runs, and the specific breakdown is as follows:

Runs Probability
0....... 36.99%
1....... 22.94%
2....... 16.27%
3....... 12.23%
4+..... 11.57%

For runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out, the run expectancy is 1.36 runs, and the specific breakdown is as follows:

Runs Probability
0....... 33.26%
1....... 27.34%
2....... 22.28%
3....... 9.11%
4+..... 8.01%

Now we're getting somewhere. You've still reduced your overall run expectancy. But you've decreased your chances of scoring 0 runs by 3.62%, so you've increased your likelihood of scoring at least one run. What's more, you've increased your chances of scoring exactly one run by almost 5%, and exactly two runs by 6%! Basically, the sacrifice you're making is increasing your probability of scoring 1-2 runs at the expense of scoring 3 or more. So in a close game in the later innings and runners on first and second, it (and it hurts to say this) might make sense to bunt them over.

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