re: Crude above 50

OPEC as cut production from an all time high of 34.3 million barrels a day. Their cut is 5% divided amongst OPEC and Non-OPEC (1.2 Mbbl/d OPEC vs .6 Mbbl/d).

In an Ideal World: The IEA says 3rd quarter 2016 global supplies exceeded demand by 300,000 bbls/day. So according to them, this production will throw us into a deficit reducing oil storage and thus the price will go up.

In a Realistic World: A) The IEA is known for having inaccurate estimates in the past, take the surplus comment with a grain of salt.

B) We are talking about OPEC making a cut, a conglomerate of countries that are always trying to screw each other. They made a cut back in 2008 of around 2 Mbbls/day. Afterwards it was reported that several countries were reported to have not been producing at their regulated rate several MONTHS after.

C) This cut is predicated on non-OPEC countries, mainly Russia, making their 600,000 bbl/day cut as well. Although Russia has been on board as of late, due to their economic strain from oil prices.

In the end, we still have a pretty massive surplus although it is not as bad as last year. But with the elevated prices you will see more development and DUC wells drilled, mostly in the US.

We will eventually run a deficit of oil, but not till mid next year and you won't be seeing $100/bbl more like $65, maybe $70 by the end of the year if OPEC follows through.

It'll be a long time before you see $100 again.