quote:
You essentially listed the battleground states as a pathway to victory. Even if you lost, winning battleground states was still the most reasonable pathway to victory. It's not some secret

This is why I get amused when you reply to me

Nate gets every state right for Obama, and he is a god. Yet I, in July no less, list the states that get Trump the victory (Penn specifically), and that he was likely on the path to break 300 (with Wisc, Iowa, +1), and its just a lucky guess.

And I never recanted. Not even on VA

And if I was just 'listing battleground states', how come there was no listing of Colo? N. Mex? Nev? N Hamp? Maine? I could have even listed Mich, and been a phenom!

How is it that I just happened to nail every state (except VA), and say he would break 300 EVs, when up to the night of the results, pollsters were still claiming Trump may not carry Ohio (+9), NC (+4), or Fla (+2)??

It wasn't a lazy guess. If you throw out the push pollsters, look at the demos targeted, compare that to 2004, and add in the energy factor, it was a pretty safe call.

Even as far back as July. When Nate was saying RELAX, Trump has no path

quote:
Nate Silver: “It’s not looking too good for Donald J. Trump.” - Oct, '16

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Posted by buckeye_vol

Member since Jul 2014

35251 posts

Posted on 11/23/16 at 1:45 pm to RobbBobb

quote:
Nate gets every state right for Obama, and he is a god.

No, his model reasonable predicted the outcomes. And it's not just about choosing the states, it's about how close a state is. For example, predicting a candidate has a 45% chance to win a state and the candidates ends up winning by a slim margin is a lot more reasonable than giving that candidate a 10% chance.

quote:
and its just a lucky guess. And I never recanted.

Since you didn't provide much, if any, basis for your prediction then it is a random guess. Correctly picking the underdog horse because it has cool name that happens to win a race, doesn't make that pick somehow more informed.

quote:
How is it that I just happened to nail every state (except VA),

I don't know. Wishful thinking that ends up right, doesn't make it any less wishful.

quote:
If you throw out the push pollsters, look at the demos targeted, compare that to 2004, and add in the energy factor, it was a pretty safe call.

Except they weren't "safe" those were close states. If you said Trump has a 55% chance of winning each of those states, that would be more reasonable than saying he had a 95% chance given the slim margins..

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Posted by buckeye_vol

Member since Jul 2014

35251 posts

Posted on 11/23/16 at 1:48 pm to RobbBobb

quote:
Even as far back as July. When Nate was saying RELAX, Trump has no path

Nate was one of the few poll modelers who was giving Trump a reasonable shot. This is my post from a couple weeks ago regarding that:

Nate discussed the very outcome
The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing

He argued that the state races were far more uncertain
Election Update: National Polls Show Clinton’s Lead Stabilizing — State Polls, Not So Much

He argued that despite her polling, her position was much worse than Obama in 2012
Election Update: Why Clinton’s Position Is Worse Than Obama’s

He was forced to argue against the other modelers about Trump's chances
Election Update: Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory

He highlighted the uncertainty due to undecided voters
Election Update: Where Are The Undecided Voters?

He even had to defend Trump's odds when before the Comey bombshell where others were giving Trump less than 1% when Clinton had her largest polling margins
Election Update: Why Our Model Is More Bullish Than Others On Trump.

In addition, he even questioned Hillary's campaigning in Arizona while giving Trump credit for campaigning in Wisconsin and Michigan.
Not only is it justifiable for Trump to be campaigning in WI or MI—it's absolutely the correct strategy. Whereas Clinton in AZ is dubious.

He even went off on the hack liberals at Huffington Post who were criticizing him for giving Trump a good chance of winning.
Nate Silver rages at Huffington Post editor in 14-part tweetstorm

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