re: Is Aranda the next Saban?...

Agree, and there are plenty of examples of the transition not working. But eventually there are those coordinators who do have what it takes, and if they check the boxes and if you feel they have what it takes then you have to give them a shot, whether or not they have the experience.

There are also head coaches who have done well in some places, but then fail when given a shot at a better opportunity. Either way, you're going to take a risk, so I don't think we should avoid all coaches without head coaching experience.