re: Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired

The 12z models today are still latching on to P39L and developing it in a week or so. It is actually still over Africa:



It should stay weak as it moves westward across the Basin with conditions being pretty unfavorable overall:



The red contours and brownish orange shading show that the Atlantic could be dominated by dry sinking air over the next week or so. This fits right in with the theme of this season with the MDR being full of dry sinking air:





Conditions are forecast to improve over the WCAB and Gulf as we move through the 2nd week of the upcoming period. This appears to be what the models are picking up on but they actually try to get things started in about 7 days or so, which might be a little bit rushed. However, the Climate Prediction Center is highlighting the Islands for development in Week 2:



Regardless, a long ways off but something to watch with both the 12z GFS and Euro having a system at D10:





And they are both supported by the corresponding ensemble runs. The 12z Euro EPS isn't as aggressive as the GEFS but is highlighting a similar area by D10:



An interesting analog of a late season system that came across really low would be Lili from 2002 that peaked as a Cat 4: