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re: FiveThirtyEight: Cardinals have been luckiest MLB team since 1998 Expansion
Posted on 9/15/16 at 1:42 pm to Bench McElroy
Posted on 9/15/16 at 1:42 pm to Bench McElroy
Now let's compare the minor league systems for the Cards, Cubs, and Astros to the Mariners and see if it's really luck, or if the Mariners just don't know what the frick they're doing.
162 game season is a war of attrition. Being able to get good contributions from the AAA call ups each season to supplement the opening day 25 can mean a few extra wins here and there. Maybe that has more to do with making the playoffs than sheer luck.
I'm all about advanced metrics, but saying one of the more poorly run franchises over the last decade is simply unlucky is absurd.
162 game season is a war of attrition. Being able to get good contributions from the AAA call ups each season to supplement the opening day 25 can mean a few extra wins here and there. Maybe that has more to do with making the playoffs than sheer luck.
I'm all about advanced metrics, but saying one of the more poorly run franchises over the last decade is simply unlucky is absurd.
Posted on 9/15/16 at 4:23 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
I'm all about advanced metrics, but saying one of the more poorly run franchises over the last decade is simply unlucky is absurd
They aren't saying that they're simply unlucky. From the article:
quote:
Although the Mariners have hardly been uniformly great during their drought, no franchise has had more bad luck keeping it out of the playoffs over the past couple decades, given its yearly records.
The whole point of the article is a simple comparison between the actual playoff appearances and expected playoff appearances in relation to the average wins generally needed to gain a postseason berth. In essence they're just good (the few years they are good) in the wrong years, while the Cardinals are bad (the few years they are bad) in the right years. For example they missed the playoffs twice while winning 93 games, while the Cardinals made the playoffs in a year they won 83 games.
The point wasn't to say that the only thing separating the Cardinals from the Mariners is luck
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