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Message
re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:33 am to baytiger
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:33 am to baytiger
quote:
also keep in mind that it's still not a closed low in that frame, so any "jump" in the models could simply be the center displacing and reforming
Exactly, I was just illustrating how that Euro run may have pulled that off. Always lots of uncertainty associated with an upper level feature like that. Then add in that no one knows the what or where for 99L at that point. Still highly problematic for anyone trying to forecast 99L.
2
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:41 am to rds dc
Latest update: only a 20% chance of cyclone formation in the next 48 hrs. 
Bad news is if this does develop into a hurricane the majority of computer models have it hitting New Orleans. This is my dreaded gut feeling too.
It seems like it is all or nothing.
Bad news is if this does develop into a hurricane the majority of computer models have it hitting New Orleans. This is my dreaded gut feeling too.
It seems like it is all or nothing.
This post was edited on 8/26/16 at 7:42 am
Posted on 8/26/16 at 7:44 am to rds dc
The first few visible images show that the low level spin appears to be around 22.5N 74.5W with convection being sheared from it.
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