re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

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also keep in mind that it's still not a closed low in that frame, so any "jump" in the models could simply be the center displacing and reforming

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Exactly, I was just illustrating how that Euro run may have pulled that off. Always lots of uncertainty associated with an upper level feature like that. Then add in that no one knows the what or where for 99L at that point. Still highly problematic for anyone trying to forecast 99L.