While the storm does appear to have gotten a little better organized overnight, the mid-level circulation is still south of the surface low. It does appear to be trying to stack the mid level circulation over the surface low to the north. Once it gets stacked vertically, the storm can then intensify more efficiently. Looking at the water vapor loop, it appears that dry air is impeding the system somewhat but remember the models don't have it taking off for awhile yet.
water vapor loop

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Posted by Bama and Beer

Baldwin Co, AL

Member since Oct 2010

81011 posts

Posted on 8/24/16 at 4:45 am to LSU2001

Oh this mother fricker's path looks worse and worse every time I look at it

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Posted by baytiger

Boston

Member since Dec 2007

46978 posts

Posted on 8/24/16 at 4:51 am to LSU2001

I'm not sure it's got a closed surface circulation yet, but it definitely does look better overnight. Convection has been reasonably sustained overnight. It looks like it's starting to die down a bit though, which should give us a better look at the surface circulation, if there is one, by sunrise.

I've seen some posts about the vertical structure of the storm pop up overnight and I'd kind of caution against reading too much into that. It's really hard to ascertain based only on IR imagery, and that's all we've got right now. First recon of the day will take off in a couple hours and will give us a better picture in combination with visible sat imagery. There's going to be another windsat pass soon as well... the last couple have missed the storm, so hopefully this one will hit.

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