re: Hurricane Earl - Mexico Bound

quote:

---

eastern caribbean looks favorable for development 60/70 hours out

---

Esp. if it can stay south of the Islands. A recent UL potential voracity streamer dipped pretty far south into the tropics - reddish area in center of green circle:



An upper level low pinched off from that and is currently drifting NW with significant shear on the SE side:





The models continue to lift it off to the NW, allowing shear to decrease out ahead of 97L:



Then the models show an upper level anticyclone building in over the top of 97L:



as it moves towards increasingly warm water with deep heat content:



The models still struggle with the upper levels, so things very well could not play out like they are showing right now. However, this potential upper level setup combined with a ridge that is either weaker or shifted farther east could potentially produce a potent system in the Gulf by the end of the week. As always, lots of moving parts and lots will probably change b/w now and then.