re: When do interest rates rise

quote:

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While I can get on board with inflation numbers being borderline joke, there is no way there is 10-20% unemployment. 

At least, given the known way unemployment is measured, there is no way 10-20%

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The ~90 million+ adults unemployed/permanently out of labor force might disagree with your observational analysis. I'd venture real unemployment is 20% at a minimum, and approaching Depression-like levels (25~30%)

Being generous to your argument, the current labor force participation rate hovers around 61-63% month to month, the lowest it has been in over 30 years.

"Given the way unemployment is measured", if the economy stays on its current path, pretty soon we'll have 100 million adults out of the labor force and sub 4% unemployment. The current scenario cannot create real unemployment at the current rate around 5%.

If you want to see a real labor market where unemployment was below 5% try GWB's first term until 9/11/2001. This is the last time the economy was at full employment.

As Obama will soon become the only president in history to have ZERO quarters during his administration with GDP growth at or greater than 3%, why is it impossible to believe unemployment exceeds 20%, or even your 10% figure?