re: What are the odds of LSU's football record for each possibility?

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Good thing is 1 loss should be good enough for the playoff. Your odds looks pretty good to me.

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not if our one loss is to Bama and they go undefeated in conference.

If that happens, we don't win the West. And I seriously doubt the committee will send two teams from the same conference to the playoffs. That would leave two Power 5 conference champions out in the cold. Politically, I don't think the committee could stomach that.