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re: Best place to invest today?

Posted on 5/17/16 at 6:18 pm to
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10247 posts
Posted on 5/17/16 at 6:18 pm to
I get exactly what you're doing. And although cash on cash wouldn't necessarily be a measure many "experts" would use, I notice that you do use it, and I make some assumptions based on that. Good ones.

I'm just not really a tech investor. I don't understand it, and I own little of it due to this. I look at it. I see people make money. I get frustrated by that. All the time.

But one rule I've never broken in major fashion, and it could possibly be a very large error on my part, is never buy anything you don't understand.

Now from that you could draw a conclusion that for whatever reason I don't have the ability or desire to learn about it. And this is something I've thought about a lot lately. Stubborn. Contempt prior to investigation. It has cost me at a minimum opportunity. I posted about it on here once.

But back to one of your main points. Covered calls, and cash secured puts are about as conservative as one could possibly get. So is buying VIX insurance on one's portfolio.

I also like synthetic longs a lot. Someone on here once tried to explain to me my cost to carry equaled exactly that of taking a long position.

Another guy on here knows his options very good as well. He was making a killing during the Chinese "crisis". I think on AAPL. That dude is brilliant. He's just not as outspoken as you and I.

Something you might find interesting is that Buffett has come out and said LEAPS (widely thought to have (possibly too much) time premium built in), are highly susceptible to market inefficiencies, and an extremely inexpensive way to take long term long positions. In his case I think selling puts is a long position. But you and I already consider this long as well for selected stocks we wouldn't mind owning.

I've been watching AAPL and also AMZN. Trying to learn a bit more. Now isn't the time for me. Pre election. No meaningful correction in a long while. No clear trend on industrial or base metals. Earnings has been the largest financial engineering I can recall in my lifetime. AKA, borderline fraud.

There is going to be consequences to the easy monetary policy. I don't know exactly what it will be.. And I'll state the "experts" haven't even imagined in what form these consequences will come.

But consequences bring opportunity if one has cash at the right time. So I'm mostly waiting, and have been for some time now. Miss out on upside? Yes. But also scraped profits off of the equity run up and reallocated some of this already as well. Realized gains. Not gains on some website. For the most part the equity that remains is mostly "house money." I just think it would be ignorant to not take some profit after the largest run up in stocks I've ever seen.
Posted by dabigfella
Member since Mar 2016
6687 posts
Posted on 5/17/16 at 6:22 pm to
Believe me Im almost completely out of equities, I took a monster capital gain on MO last week at $61.xx the yield isnt there for me to be a buyer anymore and PM I sold half my stock over $100. I sold puts to get back in cheaper but where these historically monster yield hogs are trading today is nowhere near where I wanna be. Ive been a PM owner for 20 years just about and i cashed out my MO stake from it last week, thats where I stand on this market. You cant buy low growth names like PM and MO and these crummy yields. PM was a $75 stock a year ago, names like that dont move 33% in a year, thats tech name type move. I also dumped mcdonalds out of my portfolio last month. I have a ton of cash and am content selling puts for now. Very few longs in my book, 6 to be exact right now. The rest are cash secured puts i sell.
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